Canadian Steele

So, why is it I think Martin is in his final hours as the leader of this country? It would be easy to say that Adscam is going to play out badly, or the country has shifted to the right and Liberal no longer directly reflects the peoples sentiments , or Harper will strong arm Martin out with savvy political manoeuvring and etc, etc, but what it really comes down to is perception. I feel Paul Martin has suffered too many blows to his public image to be spared.

Governments do not rise and fall with over the finer points of technically complicated and convoluted issues, nor is power based on the success of political stratagem. Rather, the perception, the image, built around these parties and their agendas is the crux of the political game. What value the public attaches to the manoeuvring, the rhetoric, the accomplishments and failures, and even the figures themselves is what matters. And politicians are definitely aware of this. No matter what happens on the hill, in the battle to rule, an official will seek to construe his or his party’s actions as positive and his opponent or the opposition’s actions as negative when striving to gain. Of course this has intensified as of late and it can be definitely be taken too far (hence my criticisms of Harper).

For an example of the power of perception, take Tony Blair’s recent re-election in Britain. In any other election his win would have been considered a considerable and decisive majority. With the precedent set of his last two elections, which were impressive landslides, this more average and normal result could be construed to reveal a chink in Blair’s armour. In normal times the election results would have been viewed as a successful and solid majority. Now, however, some took advantage and spun the tale of Blair’s weakening power. Obviously, just a subjective opinion, but enough momentum was gathered by this push that many considered Blair’s career as ending.

Or, take the previous Canadian election. Conservatives were a real threat for the Liberals and had a solid chance at being elected. When the voters stepped up to the polls, however, habit kicked in and old appraisals moved Martin into 24 Sussex Drive.

So, it becomes increasingly clear that perception of parties and their leaders is at the heart of who gets elected. What happens in parliament isn’t as important as what people think happened and how they view those events. That is why I caution those who deride political display as being “manufactured” because manufactured or not, it is vital.

Now, applied to Martin we see why I contend that it is over for him. Maybe not right away, but it won’t be long before we have a new Prime Minister. This is because Martin himself has taken too many blows to recover well enough to continue as a “strong” leader. Martin is seen as dishonest, according to new polls. His immorality is on trial, due to possible involvement in Adscam ethically questionable political tactics. His party’s reputation isn’t so hot right now (see any news report or blog site for further unending info). And let’s not forget his enduring nickname “Mr. Dithers”. All these bruises to Martin image raise legitimate points, but what is important is how these points were pushed. And the damage is done.

What is going to happen then? Well, as you can see below, I already think Harper is in trouble too, so here is how I think the scene will play out.

• Spring or summer election.
• Slightly less of a majority for the Liberals
• Conservatives in line oust Harper
• Perceived Strong CPC leader puts hurt on Martin
• Martin out

The upcoming election, I think, will again result in a Liberal minority. Here is where the opportunists step in. Conservatives will jockey for increased power and position by backing new candidates for opposition, as Harper will be removed. Martin may survive a while longer, but with a new opponent who has the fresh face advantage; Martin will be pressured into stepping down as well. Even if Martin is able to avoid election and Adscam guilt, a new conservative leader is not far off, and once again, the public’s perception shall be the key to the political process. An electorate has attached negative connotations to almost all involved, and the first to “clean house” will seize a major advantage. Either way, Martin’s day in the “reign” darkens even now.